How do I know if I’m ready for my target race?
Whilst you may race many times per year, there are no doubt a couple of races which are most important to you, whether that’s because they’re flat and fast to run a PB, or it’s a challenging course that you just want to run well. You’ll train hard for this race, but how do you know if you’re ready?
What’s the target?
Target races are all about giving it your best effort. These are the races you’ll employ a proper taper for, fuel well for and focus most of your training specifically around.
You have to know what you want to achieve first though. You can’t expect to perform well if you haven’t set out a clear goal or goals which you can measure or compare. These don’t need to be relative to other people, often it’s about your own sense of achievement and personal goals rather than competitive targets such as overall placing.
By knowing what your end goal is, you give yourself the chance to plan what will hopefully be a successful and productive training programme or have someone design one for you.
How far are you from your goal?
At the start of working towards your goal, you need to know your starting point. When targeting different distances, you can use pace predictors to estimate your current run time based on a recent performance. E.g. a 20:00 5k, suggests you could run a 41:38 10k using one predictor. These distances are close, so it’ll be fairly accurate however, larger distance jumps mean less accurate predictions.
If you’ve recently raced the distance that you’re targeting, use that time whilst considering the expected weather for that time of year, any difference in course difficulty from elevation gain and loss, plus atmosphere from crowds etc.
Test and compare
Provided your next target race is at least a couple of months away, and not further than 10k-10 miles, a test run at the half-way point of the programme is a good idea. Mimic route conditions where possible and keep in mind that come race day, you’ll have had more recovery. If the race distance is greater than 10 miles, use a 10k-10 mile test run and use the predictors to estimate your current predicted finish time.
Compare your predicted or previous race time to what you then run in the test to get a clear idea of how far you’ve come in the first weeks of the programme, and whether you’re likely to be able to improve enough in the rest of the programme in order to achieve your target on race day.
After this test run, you’ll likely lose sight of progress unless you keep a detailed training log. Another testing method is to repeat a session you did in the week before your test run, around 4 weeks later. Considering conditions again, you can then look at the paces you ran both times, plus look at heart rate data and see how much fitter you are (all being well) on the second running. If there aren’t enough weeks before the race to allow for this, comparing recovery or steady long runs for average pace and heart rate will also show you if you’ve moved closer to your goal and are likely to reach your target time in your target race.
Nobody can ever be 100% certain about race day, but if you train intelligently and with the right effort, you’ll have a better understanding of what to expect of yourself on the big day. Race well and good luck.
Written by Kyle Brooks, Running Coach based in Norwich, Norfolk
The image for this post is from my 2019 target race, Snetterton marathon where I hoped to break 3hrs. I tracked and measured lots of data to go into the day knowing it was a probability, meaning I could push on and in the end run 2hrs 51. Testing and measuring are well worth it.
